CONFLICT MODELLING AND RESOLUTION IN A DYNAMIC STATE

ABSTRACT
A conflict is neither good (functional) nor bad (dysfunctional). The distinction depends on the type of
conflict, one’s attitude and reaction to it thereby making it constructive or destructive. The absence a clear
measuring strategy or framework, against which it can be evaluated, makes it even harder to differentiate
between good and bad conflict. It is however accepted that if the result of a conflict is positive, then the
conflict is considered “good” and if the result is negative, then the conflict is “bad”.

The formal models and quantitative analysis to explain how strategic actor’s behaviour in a conflict
setting are rare even-though model-based approaches are becoming more commonly used by statisticians
and other scientists. These approaches to a great extent rely on fundamental or empirical models that are
frequently described by systems of differential equations.

The underlying objective of this research was to develop conflict modelling and resolution models
applicable to a dynamic state using ordinary differential equations (ODE) with integrated logistic model.
Solutions to the ODEs were obtained by the application of Laplace transformation.

This research assumes that a conflict can be described by two main variables; control variables and state
variables which reflect on the structural causes of a conflict. It is further assumed that a conflict can be
described by a Bernoulli distribution with parameter and that conflicts exist over a span of time with
interplaying variables that can be dynamically modelled and the initial or boundary conditions can be
estimated in a dynamic state. In developing the models, the Game theory and Bayesian theorem are used
1 Corresponding Author: vincentoteke@gmail.com

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