Stanley Nyoro is a market and social researcher currently working with the Nielsen in the customized intelligence department. He previously worked as a Senior Research Executive of social impact evaluations at PARS Research. He holds a MSc. Social Statistics (UoN) and a BSc. Mathematical Sciences with IT (Maseno University).
Project Title: Modelling Effects of Crude Oil Prices on GDP Growth and Inflation in Kenya using ARDL Model
The project seeks to investigate the change in inflation and GDP growth brought by changes in crude oil prices in Kenya. Two Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Models (ARDL) have been applied on a yearly data from 1980 to 2018. The first ARDL model establishes a relationship between crude oil prices and the GDP growth, while the second gives a relationship between crude oil prices and the inflation in Kenya. Control variables relevant to the two models were identified after a thorough literature review. ARDL bound test cointegration framework has been utilized in establishing the existence of a long-term relationship. According to study findings, there exists a long-term relationship between oil prices and GDP growth, and oil prices and inflation. Moreover, a highly significant short-term outcome in a one-year period for the two macroeconomic variables has been identified.