A SIRD model applied to COVID-19 dynamics and intervention strategies during the first wave in Kenya

Abstract The first case of COVID-19 was reported in Kenya in March 2020 and soon after nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were established to control the spread of the disease. The NPIs consisted, and continue to consist, of mitigation measures followed by a period of relaxation of some of the measures. In this paper, we use a deterministic mathematical model to analyze the dynamics of the disease, during the first wave, and relate it to the intervention measures. In the process, we develop a new method for estimating the disease parameters.

Prof Billy Ogana

Professor Wandera Ogana is the first African to be elected as the president of the Commission for Developing Countries (CDC), a commission of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), for the period 2015 – 2018